Coalition sinks from ‘box seat’ to prospect of losing seats
Latest polling shows the coalition has gone from being “in the box seat” to win the election to the prospect of losing seats on May 3.
The YouGov polling, released to AAP, reveals Labor has gained ground to forge ahead 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent over the coalition in the two-party preferred vote.
The result is Labor’s best in months and slightly higher than its polling of 52.1 per cent at the 2022 election.
The coalition’s primary vote is now down to 33.5 per cent – lower than at the 2022 election.
Labor has extended its lead over the coalition on a two-party preferred basis. Photo: AAP
Falling support for the opposition leader has been mirrored in other recent polling as Labor and Albanese continue to build momentum as the election draws near.
Dutton’s work-from-home policy had sparked the fall and taken his party from “being in the box seat to win the federal election in February to struggling to hold onto the seats they won in 2022,” YouGov director of public data Paul Smith said.
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“The coalition’s support has fallen so far that they now risk losing seats.
“Peter Dutton’s work-from-home blunder has taken him from a winning position to a losing one in a dramatic way we rarely see.”
While Dutton has moved to stem the fall by backflipping on his work-from-home policy and apologising, Smith said it had “done enormous damage to him because voters have formed a strong opinion that (the coalition) does not understand their working lives and that they aren’t on side with people’s rights at work”.
The coalition’s lead on a two-party preferred basis has plunged since late February. Photo: AAP
The hit is also personal with Albanese increasing his lead as preferred prime minister by four points to 48 per cent compared to Dutton’s 37 per cent.
The 11 percentage point difference is the largest since June 2024, when Albanese struggled to win over voters.
Albanese has experienced a boost to his net satisfaction score to -2, while the opposition leader records his equal lowest rating at -15.
“Peter Dutton has fallen 4 per cent further behind as the preferred Prime Minister in just a week – a sure sign that his forced backdown from his unpopular work-from-home policies has directly impacted his personal standing with voters,” Smith said.
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“There have been only two prime ministers who have lost their seats – John Howard and Stanley Melbourne Bruce – and that was because they went against Australians’ rights at work.”
Peter Dutton has slipped again as preferred prime minister, with Anthony Albanese on the rise.
Since last Friday, Labor’s primary vote is up by two points to 32 per cent, while the coalition is down one-and-a-half to 33.5 per cent.
One Nation has slightly increased its share to 8.5 per cent, with the Greens unchanged on 13 per cent.
Independents are down two points to nine per cent of the primary vote, while the Trumpet of Patriots, which has the backing of mining magnate Clive Palmer, is down one point to one per cent.
Albanese will be in the Northern Territory on Friday, where he is expected to make a health-related announcement.
Dutton will be in Perth to attend a business breakfast hosted by The West Australian newspaper.
Labor’s primary vote has risen to 32 per cent while support for the coalition has fallen. Photo: AAP
It will be the opposition leader’s second visit to the mining state during the election campaign.
The Australian Electoral Commission will conduct the ballot draw for candidates at midday.
Parliamentarians and wannabe politicians will find out the order their names will appear on the ballot paper.
The YouGov poll of 1515 people was carried out between April 4 to 10, with a margin of error of 3.3 per cent.
