Polls tilt towards Labor as campaign gets into full swing
Labor has surged ahead of the Coalition in polling, with primary support for the conservatives on a slump, as leaders begin crisscrossing the nation on the election campaign trail.
A national Newspoll survey conducted for The Australian published on Sunday, has the Albanese government leading the Coalition 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis ahead of the May 3 election.
The survey with 1249 voters was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, after the 2025/26 federal budget on Tuesday and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s reply speech on Thursday.
It showed primary support for Labor lifted from 32 to 33 per cent from the March 10 Newspoll, while the Coalition had a drop of two percentage points to 37 per cent.
The Greens remained at 12 per cent while support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation dropped from 7 per cent to 6.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese retained and opened up his lead over Dutton as preferred prime minister.
Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is his biggest since before the last election in May 2024.
Asked about the polling, Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce said “some people” might find Dutton’s “strengths a bit disconcerting”.
“Peter is a tough leader,” he told Seven’s Sunrise program.
“At times I don’t get along with him, at times I do. But I have to say he is a good man and he is a strong man and he is the right guy to be prime minister of Australia.”
Senior Labor MP Tanya Plibersek said the poll results were close, and the party was taking nothing for granted.
“Our whole focus is trying to make life a little easier for people,” she told Seven.
The Newspoll is the third major survey to show the government gaining ground after Resolve and YouGov polls at the weekend found support swinging Labor’s way.
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The latest YouGov modelling shows Labor on track to win 75 seats and the Coalition 60.
Parties need to get 76 seats for a majority.
In past elections, marginal seats in Queensland, NSW and Western Australia have had a lot of sway over who ends up in The Lodge in Canberra.
But in this election, political experts see Victoria, particularly Melbourne seats, as a key battleground.
The YouGov modelling, released on Sunday, projects that Labor could lose five seats to the opposition but win two seats back from the Greens and one from the Coalition.
It showed the Coalition could lose three seats, and all teal independent MPs could retain their seats.
The modelling follows interviews with 38,629 people from February 27 to Wednesday, with the survey results modelled across all 150 electorates.
The Resolve Strategic poll, conducted for Nine newspapers post-budget and published on Sunday, showed the government gaining ground to be neck-and-neck with the Coalition (both on 50 per cent) on a two-party preferred basis.
It also showed Albanese (42 per cent) comfortably ahead of Dutton (33 per cent) as preferred prime minister.
The Resolve poll surveyed 3237 voters from Wednesday to Saturday.
Hefty health pledge
Albanese will join WA Premier Roger Cook in Perth on Monday to announce an election pledge of $200 million towards the redevelopment of the St John of God Midland Public Hospital.
The state government will cover the rest of the cost of the $355 million upgrade, which will deliver more hospital beds, operating theatres and a new intensive care and emergency department.
The hospital is in the outer seat of Hasluck, held by Labor MP Tania Lawrence on a 10.04 per cent margin.
WA was key in delivering Albanese his 2022 election victory.
Labor will need to keep the electorate of Tangney, held on a 2.8 per cent margin, and safe seats Pearce, Swan and Hasluck.
The government will be chasing extra electorates, including Moore and the new seat of Bullwinkel, which is a three-way race.
Ian Goodenough, who has held Moore for more than a decade, will recontest his seat as an independent at the May 3 election after he was ousted as the Liberal candidate.
Framing the election as a choice to protect Medicare, Labor is expected to make further health-related announcements within days.
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Albanese claimed only his party was strengthening Medicare with the largest spend in more than four decades.
“This means more free trips to the doctor, cheaper medicines and more urgent care clinics where all you need is your Medicare card, not your credit card,” he said.
While Albanese went on the attack on the first full day of campaigning by going to Coalition-held seats in Queensland, he visited the safe Labor seat of Canberra on Sunday.
Labor has previously announced $8.5 billion in funding to strengthen Medicare and make nine out of 10 GP visits free by the end of the decade.
Dutton has promised to match that funding, with an additional $500 million commitment to boost mental health support.
Health Minister Mark Butler claimed a vote for Labor was a vote for a stronger Medicare.
“Everything in Peter Dutton’s record tells us that he will start by cutting Medicare and he won’t stop there,” he said.
“He will cut everything except your taxes.”
Tariffs incursion
However, the federal election could soon be upended by international forces.
Fresh tariffs to be announced on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump threaten to overshadow the campaign.
Albanese said Australia could continue to rely on Trump and the American alliance, despite the likelihood of further tariffs.
“We regard the United States as a friend and partner, and we have been able to rely on them for a long period,” he told ABC’s Insiders program.
“I’ve had two constructive discussions with President Trump, and I’ll continue to engage constructively.”
Trump is touting Wednesday’s tariff expansion announcement as “liberation day”.
Australia has also copped tariffs of 25 per cent on steel and aluminium, while there are fresh concerns for other industries such as agriculture and pharmaceuticals – two of the largest US exports – will be hit next.
Dutton said he also remained confident of the relationship with the US.
Despite previous criticism of Australian ambassador and former prime minister Kevin Rudd, Dutton said the Coalition would not change the diplomatic role.
“I want Kevin Rudd to succeed because our country will succeed and I will appoint Rudd as the ambassador,” he said.
“When we were in government, we were able to negotiate the AUKUS arrangement as a Coalition government with a Democrat administration.”
As Trump urges countries such as Australia to increase defence spending, Albanese said funding for the area was being bolstered.
“We are investing in the assets that we need now, some of them coming online. You can’t make a decision one year and then launch the ship the next year,” he said.
“We have a plan to use defence manufacturing as well to build up our capability in other areas.”
