Labor and Coalition deadlocked in latest poll

Labor and the Coalition have drawn level in the eyes of voters as the countdown continues to the federal election, polls reveal.

Mar 21, 2025, updated Mar 21, 2025
the looming election is shaping up to be a tight contest. Image: AAP/The New Daily
the looming election is shaping up to be a tight contest. Image: AAP/The New Daily

The latest YouGov poll, for AAP, shows the opposition clawing back ground on the government, with the major parties tied at 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis.

The result comes after two weeks of Labor holding a narrow 51 to 49 per cent lead in the poll off the back of the response to ex-tropical cyclone Alfred and public reaction to the government’s backing of Ukraine.

While the Coalition has gained recent ground, Anthony Albanese remains ahead of Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.

The poll showed 45 per cent of those surveyed backed Albanese as preferred leader compared to 40 per cent for Dutton.

YouGov director of public data Paul Smith said the election would be a tight contest.

“It is a very close race, but the Prime Minister has now consolidated his lead as the preferred leader and that is significant,” he said.

Labor’s primary vote has remained unchanged since the last poll at 31 per cent.

The Coalition has increased its voter share, gaining one point to 37 per cent.

Image: AAP/Joanna Kordina

Stay informed, daily

The primary vote also went backwards by half a percentage point for the Greens and One Nation, down to 13 and 7 per cent respectively, while independents also fell by one point to 8 per cent.

Mining magnate Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party stands at just 1 per cent.

The YouGov poll also showed Dutton retaking the lead for satisfaction among voters.

His satisfaction rating is at -5 per cent, with 42 per cent satisfied and 47 per cent dissatisfied.

Albanese’s net satisfaction is at -9 per cent, with 41 per cent satisfied and 50 per cent dissatisfied.

Image: AAP/Joanna Kordina

The polling comes as Labor prepares to hand down its fourth federal budget on Tuesday.

It will show a deficit in the country’s finances after back-to-back surpluses. The financial outlook prompted many to forecast the government would not deliver a budget and would instead call an earlier election.

However, the threat from ex-tropical cyclone Alfred in Queensland and northern NSW prompted Albanese to defer his plans to visit the Governor-General.

The election must be held by May 17, with Albanese expected to call the poll in the days after the budget.

The YouGov poll surveyed 1500 people between March 14 and Wednesday, with a margin of error of 3.4 per cent.

Just In