Final predictions, speculation for Saturday’s Black by-election
Voters in the southern suburbs will elect a new representative to state parliament on Saturday. Here’s your inside guide to the Black by-election.
For the third time since March 2022, a by-election is being held to replace a Liberal Party MP who has resigned from South Australia’s Lower House.
This time it’s voters in the southern suburbs seat of Black heading to the polls, tasked with electing a replacement for ex-Liberal MP and former Opposition leader David Speirs.
Speirs, who represented Black and its predecessor Bright since 2014, resigned from parliament in October when it was revealed he was facing drug supply charges. He appeared in court on Friday.
The Liberal Party holds Black on a narrow 2.7 per cent margin. The seat has around 26,500 enrolled voters across the suburbs of South Brighton, Seacliff, Seacliff Park, Seaview Downs, Kingston Park, Marino, Sheidow Park, Trott Park and Hallett Cove.
Here’s what you need to know:
Who is running?
The Labor Party is running Sacred Heart deputy principal Alex Dighton.
Dighton, from Labor’s Right faction, ran against Speirs at the last state election and cut the Liberal Party’s two party-preferred margin from 9.2 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
Premier Peter Malinauskas with Labor candidate for Black Alex Dighton. Photo: Thomas Kelsall/InDailyLabor’s state executive finalised his preselection on October 8, making him the first candidate announced for the race.
The Liberal Party, meanwhile, is running Holdfast Bay Mayor Amanda Wilson.
A long-time political independent, Wilson has been asked to run for both the Liberal and Labor parties and – like Speirs – is avowedly factionally unaligned. She was elected Mayor of Holdfast Bay in 2018 and has been a councillor since 2014.
Liberal candidate for Black Amanda Wilson (left) with Opposition leader Vincent Tarzia and Liberal candidate for Boothby Nicolle Flint. Photo: suppliedLabor has repeatedly attacked Wilson for living outside the electorate in South Glenelg and touted Dighton’s credentials as a Hallett Cove local. Wilson has said she hasn’t ruled out moving into Black and has pointed to her history representing coastal communities as Holdfast Bay Mayor and a Coast Protection Board member.
Two minor party candidates are also on the ballot: Marion councillor Sarah Luscombe for the Greens and former pilot Jonathan Parkin for the Australian Family Party.
The Greens nabbed 11.8 per cent of the vote in Black in 2022 and are preferencing Labor, while the Australian Family Party – founded by ex-Family First senator Bob Day – is preferencing the Liberals.
What is being promised?
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The Liberal Party’s splashiest promise is an $11 million seaside pool on Hallett Cove Beach.
Speirs personally advocated for the idea when he was Environment Minister and in 2022 gave Marion Council $35,000 to examine its feasibility.
Marion Council’s concept designs for a seaside pool. Image: Nicole LarkinThe council last year released concept designs for a 50-metre pool adjacent Heron Way Reserve, but stressed the plan was unfunded.
The promise is contingent on the Liberal Party forming government in 2026.
Wilson’s other local promises include.
- more public transport services down Majors Road,
- new drinking fountains at Cove FC’s soccer precinct on Majors Road,
- a new work vehicle and watering system for Glenthorne National Park volunteers,
- improvements to the Trott Park Men’s Shed and Mosaic Club, and
- funding for a Kingston Park Reserve masterplan.
The Labor Party, meanwhile, has pledged to open a new 24/7 pharmacy in either Hallett Cove, Sheidow Park or Trott Park.
It’s also committed $2 million for a safety upgrade of Marino Railway Station and declared a 177-hectare conservation park running along the Field River. The Liberal Party also promised these measures.
The Malinauskas Government put the focus on health in the southern suburbs this week, holding a press conference at the Flinders Medical Centre to release improved ambulance ramping statistics.
It also started its by-election campaign highlighting the government’s ongoing $120 million Majors Road on/off ramp project.
The Greens, meanwhile, have put World Heritage protection for the Great Australian Bight and free public transport at the centre of its campaign.
Who do the experts think will win?
Confident predictions about Saturday’s result are in short supply.
Conventional political wisdom would dictate that an incumbent government more than two years into its term has little chance of winning an Opposition seat on a nearly 3 per cent margin.
But Labor’s triumph at March’s Dunstan by-election – the first time a South Australian government has won a seat from an Opposition in 116 years – along with Speirs’ stunning political downfall has muddied the waters.
University of Adelaide emeritus professor and political commentator Clement Macintyre said a Labor victory would be an “extraordinary result”.
“It’s the sort of seat that the Liberals should be not just holding but increasing their majority on at this stage of the government,” he said.
“But the circumstances of David Speirs’ departure and the buoyancy of the Labor Party and the internal ructions of the Liberal Party mean that you can’t count on anything at the moment.
“So, while I would be loath to predict a winner, what I would say is if the Liberals win it – even very narrowly – they will be likely relieved, and if Labor win it, they will be cock-a-hoop coming on top of Dunstan.”
Dr Glynn Evans, visiting research fellow at the University of Adelaide and an expert in electoral boundaries, said his instinct is that the Liberal Party will “hold on with perhaps a tiny swing against them”.
But he also estimated that Speirs carried a personal vote of “at least 2 per cent”, which could spell trouble for the Liberal Party if Wilson does not enjoy the same popularity.
Flinders University academic Josh Sunman, a sessional lecturer in politics, has found other warning signs in the data for the Liberal Party.
The federal Liberal Party’s primary vote from polling booths in Hallett Cove at the last federal election was around 20 points behind Speirs’ vote in those same booths.
“I think the fundamentals in Black favour Labor more than the margin would suggest,” Sunman said.
“Can David Speirs’ local record after a scandal transfer to a new Liberal candidate who has had an attack on her for being a mayor who’s not from the local area? I don’t know.
“I tend to think Labor wouldn’t be campaigning hard if they didn’t think they had a real shot – the fact that (Premier) Peter Malinauskas is down there every weekend says something.”
Who do the parties think will win?
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Senior sources from both major parties, who spoke to InDaily on the condition of anonymity, believe voters’ reaction to Speirs’ departure is the crucial factor in Saturday’s race.
They say there’s a split between voters who think the former Opposition leader has been hard done by and those who think his alleged actions reflect poorly on the Liberal Party. If more of the latter votes, Wilson faces an uphill battle.
Speirs has remained active in the race, endorsing Wilson on social media and spruiking the Liberal Party’s Hallett Cove pool promise.
Sources on both sides also agree that Black has fewer “rusted on” party loyalist voters than other seats. Electors in Hallett Cove, for example, have supported Speirs at state-level and Labor MP Amanda Rishworth in federal parliament.
Liberal Party sources also say Dighton has been a hard candidate to run against because he has said very little publicly that he can be attacked on, compared to Wilson who has had a history in public life.
But Liberals have also found cause for optimism, saying they do not think the Greens will be as big a factor as they were in Dunstan. The minor party got 19.2 per cent of the primary vote in the eastern suburbs by-election.
Another “curveball” mentioned in party dispatches is voter turnout, which is typically lower in a by-election than a state election and could be further depressed by the Adelaide 500 weekend.
In a tight contest, even a small depression in a Labor or Liberal-friendly area could have an influence.
When will we know the results?
The by-election might not be called on Saturday.
While votes cast on Saturday will be counted that night, pre-poll and postal votes will not due to the provisions of South Australia’s elections legislation.
As of Thursday, 7562 voters have cast their ballot early or by post – representing nearly 30 per cent of enrolled voters in Black.
“It could take a while for the result to actually be known as it takes time for those pre-polls to come in,” Josh Sunman from Flinders University said.
“If we think back to the Dunstan by-election… (Labor candidate) Cressida O’Hanlon had a really clear lead on the night, and the Liberals just kept coming back in the late count and nearly took that over.
“If it’s looking relatively closely or that Labor has a decent lead on the night, you still probably can’t call it.
“It would have to be a kind of overwhelming Labor lead or Liberal lead to call it.”
What’s next?
Whoever wins Black faces a tough re-election fight in 2026.
Dighton would be one of Labor’s most vulnerable MPs alongside O’Hanlon in Dunstan and Sarah Andrews in Gibson and, unlike them, would only have 16 months to make his case before the next state election.
But the Liberal Party won’t be feeling particularly safe if Wilson wins either.
That’s because Black is poised to become a more Labor-friendly seat in 2026 under a draft redistricting proposal floated by the state’s electoral boundaries commission.
Under the new map, Black would gain the Labor suburb of Old Reynella but lose Liberal-friendly South Brighton.
The change, which is yet to be finalised, would cut the Liberal Party’s margin from 2.7 per cent to 1 per cent.
“If [Labor wins Black], then they’re going to have to work super hard to hold it ahead of the next state election because you’d expect some swing back from Labor,” emeritus professor Clement Macintyre said.
“If the Liberals can just hang on, they will want to redouble their efforts.
“Whoever wins it is going to have to work really hard either way before the next general election – assuming that the draft redistribution goes through.”
Saturday also looms as an early litmus test for Opposition leader Vincent Tarzia, who has led the Liberal Party for just under 100 days. Tarzia personally asked Wilson to run in Black.
“All the pressure is on the Libs,” Macintyre said
“They are expected, I would say, to win, and if they don’t then that’s serious problems for them.
“If Labor can get close even, I think they would take a lot of satisfaction from it.”
