Will AUKUS survive a second Trump presidency?
It is likely Donald Trump’s re-election will shepherd in a period of worldwide uncertainty, as he returns to the White House and upends global politics.
The isolationist, tariff-happy Republican will take charge of the country tasked with building Australia’s nuclear submarines as part of the AUKUS deal.
David Andrews, a senior policy adviser at the ANU National Security College, said Trump’s re-election will usher in a period of tumult from mid-January.
But the AUKUS deal is likely to outlive his administration.
“There’s probably a quiet confidence by Australian defence officials that they can make a strong case for AUKUS to continue,” he said.
“We’re putting money into the US industrial base.
You might like
“We’re helping them expand their industry through several billions of dollars in industrial support for production lines.”
Importantly, AUKUS architects Scott Morrison, Joe Biden and Boris Johnson are no longer in power.
All three of the AUKUS leaders, along with their parties, are either leaving power or are no longer in government. Photo: Getty‘Catastrophic’
Former foreign minister Bob Carr suggested that the US may cancel or delay the deal following Trump’s election win, but Andrews said any pause or cancellation of AUKUS would “be disastrous to submarine capabilities”.
“If Trump was to walk away from the entire thing and say that we aren’t going to sell you nuclear submarines of any type, we’re not going to support you acquiring them, that’s a catastrophic scenario,” he told the Nine newspapers.
Stay informed, daily
“We are reliant on the US nuclear deterrent. It has been fundamental to our defence strategy for 70 years.”
He said it is conceivable that Trump may try to extract more money from Australia if AUKUS is to continue.
“He may turn around and say I want more money, I want more investment to keep this going,” Andrews said.
“We should brace ourselves or expect that some level of renegotiation might be expected from the United States side.”
Critics
Former prime ministers from both sides of the aisle have criticised AUKUS.
Malcolm Turnbull called it a “dud” following Trump’s re-election, but criticism from within the Labor Party has been particularly stinging.
Marcus Strom, convener of Labor against War, said that he and his organisation are trying to overturn bipartisan support for AUKUS within the Labor Party.
“I thought as Labor came to power, it would have put AUKUS on the pile of stupid ideas that Scott Morrison came up with and got rid of it, but they’ve doubled down on this highly militarised response to instability,” he said.
“The election of Trump should give the Albanese government space to review it and say, we’ve thought about AUKUS and we’ve listened to what people want and committing $368 billion and growing to subsidise the US and British submarine fleet is not the best use of taxpayer money.”
He said most rank-and-file Labor members are opposed to it and motions calling on the government to release “the secret provisions in AUKUS 2.0” are already being passed in branches around Australia.
“There’s always loyalty towards a sitting government, so people do pull their punches,” he said.
“When you’ve got people like Bob Carr, Gareth Evans, Paul Keating and Peter Garett saying they don’t want AUKUS, it puts the wind back in the branch’s sails.”
